Chemically Modified Oils Market

The article discusses the increasing global demand for chemically modified animal or vegetable fats and oils, forecasting a continued upward trend in consumption, production, imports, and exports. The market is expected to experience steady growth from 2022 to 2030, with significant increases in both volume and value. Key findings include the highest consuming and producing countries, notable growth rates in certain regions, and fluctuations in prices over the years. Overall, the outlook for the market is positive, with continued growth projected in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for animal or vegetable fats and oils chemically modified worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 26M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $35.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Animal Or Vegetable Fats And Oils Chemically Modified

In 2022, consumption of animal or vegetable fats and oils chemically modified was finally on the rise to reach 18M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Overall, consumption saw a strong increase. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 19M tons. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global chemically modified oils market value rose rapidly to $20.8B in 2022, increasing by 7.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated buoyant growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +86.7% against 2012 indices. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (2M tons), China (1.8M tons) and the Netherlands (1.1M tons), together comprising 28% of global consumption. India, Singapore, Japan, Germany, Pakistan, Russia, Spain, Brazil, Finland and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Singapore (with a CAGR of +59.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($2.3B), China ($2.1B) and the United States ($1.5B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 28% of the global market. Pakistan, the Netherlands, Singapore, Germany, Spain, Brazil, Japan, Finland, Russia and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

Singapore, with a CAGR of +59.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of chemically modified oils per capita consumption in 2022 were Singapore (153 kg per person), Finland (84 kg per person) and the Netherlands (64 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Singapore (with a CAGR of +57.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Animal Or Vegetable Fats And Oils Chemically Modified

In 2022, approx. 16M tons of animal or vegetable fats and oils chemically modified were produced worldwide; surging by 3.1% on the year before. Over the period under review, production recorded a resilient increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when the production volume increased by 27%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 16M tons. From 2020 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, chemically modified oils production expanded to $17.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +76.0% against 2013 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the production volume increased by 24% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (3.4M tons), the United States (1.9M tons) and India (1M tons), with a combined 38% share of global production. Japan, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Malaysia, Canada, Italy and Saudi Arabia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Malaysia (with a CAGR of +17.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Animal Or Vegetable Fats And Oils Chemically Modified

In 2022, approx. 8.6M tons of animal or vegetable fats and oils chemically modified were imported worldwide; with an increase of 11% against the previous year's figure. Overall, imports recorded a resilient expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when imports increased by 27%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, chemically modified oils imports soared to $12.1B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports saw strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 50% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the Netherlands (2.4M tons) represented the largest importer of animal or vegetable fats and oils chemically modified, constituting 27% of total imports. Singapore (905K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 10% share, followed by Spain (10%), Germany (7.1%), Finland (5.4%), Malaysia (4.9%) and the United States (4.6%). The UK (349K tons), Belgium (309K tons), Sweden (187K tons), Portugal (181K tons), France (172K tons) and Austria (150K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to chemically modified oils imports into the Netherlands stood at +16.1%. At the same time, Singapore (+71.9%), Finland (+67.8%), Malaysia (+51.4%), Portugal (+46.9%), the United States (+38.0%), Sweden (+37.1%), France (+30.0%), Spain (+28.8%), Belgium (+19.8%), Austria (+8.9%), Germany (+6.5%) and the UK (+6.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Singapore emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +71.9% from 2012-2022. Singapore (+10 p.p.), Spain (+7.4 p.p.), the Netherlands (+6.2 p.p.), Finland (+5.3 p.p.), Malaysia (+4.6 p.p.), the United States (+3.9 p.p.), Portugal (+1.9 p.p.), Sweden (+1.8 p.p.) and Belgium (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the UK and Germany saw its share reduced by -3.7% and -5.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($2.8B) constitutes the largest market for imported animal or vegetable fats and oils chemically modified worldwide, comprising 23% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Singapore ($1.4B), with an 11% share of global imports. It was followed by Spain, with an 11% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the Netherlands totaled +19.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Singapore (+72.4% per year) and Spain (+34.9% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average chemically modified oils import price stood at $1,403 per ton in 2022, increasing by 25% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, chemically modified oils import price increased by +99.3% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 39%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in France ($1,647 per ton) and Portugal ($1,620 per ton), while the Netherlands ($1,199 per ton) and Malaysia ($1,286 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+6.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Animal Or Vegetable Fats And Oils Chemically Modified

In 2022, approx. 7.4M tons of animal or vegetable fats and oils chemically modified were exported worldwide; growing by 14% against the year before. In general, exports continue to indicate a buoyant increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 23%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, chemically modified oils exports surged to $10.2B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 70% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

China (1.6M tons) and the Netherlands (1.3M tons) were the largest exporters of animal or vegetable fats and oils chemically modified in 2022, recording near 21% and 17% of total exports, respectively. Malaysia (697K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 9.4% share, followed by Belgium (5.1%), the United States (4.9%) and Spain (4.6%). Canada (278K tons), the UK (226K tons), Germany (219K tons), Indonesia (218K tons), Italy (206K tons), Poland (202K tons) and Russia (167K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +47.2%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest chemically modified oils supplying countries worldwide were China ($2.2B), the Netherlands ($1.8B) and Malaysia ($940M), together accounting for 48% of global exports. Belgium, Spain, the United States, Canada, the UK, Germany, Poland, Italy, Indonesia and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

Spain, with a CAGR of +51.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average chemically modified oils export price amounted to $1,386 per ton, picking up by 24% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a moderate increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, chemically modified oils export price increased by +93.9% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 38%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Spain ($1,529 per ton) and Belgium ($1,527 per ton), while Russia ($1,208 per ton) and Indonesia ($1,263 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+6.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform