Coloured Pencil Lead Market

The global coloured pencil lead market is expected to see an upward consumption trend over the next eight years, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.8% in volume and +3.4% in value from 2022 to 2030. In 2022, consumption reached 9.6B units after three years of decline. Top consuming countries include Vietnam, China, and Nigeria. Production in 2022 was 7.9B units, with China leading at 73% of total production. Imports grew to 9B units in 2022, with Vietnam, Mexico, and Nigeria leading. Exports reached 7.3B units, dominated by China and India. Prices fluctuated in 2022, with China and Japan being top exporters based on value.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for coloured pencil lead worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 10B units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $162M (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Black Or Coloured Pencil Leads

In 2022, consumption of black or coloured pencil leads was finally on the rise to reach 9.6B units after three years of decline. Overall, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 10B units in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global coloured pencil lead market revenue totaled $124M in 2022, picking up by 9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $127M. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Vietnam (1B units), China (937M units) and Nigeria (818M units), with a combined 29% share of global consumption. The United States, Mexico, Myanmar, Turkey, Germany, Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and Sweden lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 42%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Mexico (with a CAGR of +18.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($26M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($9.5M). It was followed by Mexico.

In Germany, the coloured pencil lead market increased at an average annual rate of +6.3% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-6.7% per year) and Mexico (+16.3% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of coloured pencil lead per capita consumption was registered in Sweden (22 units per person), followed by Vietnam (11 units per person), Myanmar (8.6 units per person) and South Korea (5.6 units per person), while the world average per capita consumption of coloured pencil lead was estimated at 1.2 units per person.

In Sweden, coloured pencil lead per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Vietnam (+6.0% per year) and Myanmar (+14.7% per year).

Production

World Production of Black Or Coloured Pencil Leads

In 2022, global production of black or coloured pencil leads amounted to 7.9B units, growing by 5.3% compared with 2021. In general, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 7.5%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 8.6B units. From 2017 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, coloured pencil lead production declined slightly to $107M in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 27% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $130M. From 2017 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (5.8B units) constituted the country with the largest volume of coloured pencil lead production, accounting for 73% of total volume. Moreover, coloured pencil lead production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Germany (491M units), more than tenfold. India (409M units) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+0.3% per year) and India (+0.7% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Black Or Coloured Pencil Leads

In 2022, overseas purchases of black or coloured pencil leads were finally on the rise to reach 9B units for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year declining trend. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 9.8B units in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, coloured pencil lead imports rose to $88M in 2022. Overall, imports, however, showed a perceptible decline. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 14% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $112M. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of coloured pencil lead imports in 2022 were Vietnam (1,215M units), Mexico (876M units), Nigeria (818M units), the United States (672M units), Indonesia (622M units), Myanmar (476M units), Turkey (447M units), India (332M units), Japan (290M units), Thailand (262M units), Sweden (260M units) and the UK (219M units), together finishing at 72% of total import. Iran (192M units) held a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Myanmar (with a CAGR of +15.5%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($9.9M), Vietnam ($7.2M) and Japan ($4.4M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 24% of global imports. Indonesia, Turkey, Sweden, Mexico, India, the UK, Nigeria, Thailand, Iran and Myanmar lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Nigeria, with a CAGR of +15.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average coloured pencil lead import price amounted to $9.8 per thousand units, falling by -29.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a noticeable slump. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average import price increased by 13% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $14 per thousand units, and then declined remarkably in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($15 per thousand units), while Myanmar ($1.7 per thousand units) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nigeria (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Black Or Coloured Pencil Leads

In 2022, shipments abroad of black or coloured pencil leads was finally on the rise to reach 7.3B units after three years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 8.4B units in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, coloured pencil lead exports reached $85M in 2022. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when exports increased by 15%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $105M. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

China dominates exports structure, recording 4.9B units, which was approx. 67% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by India (644M units), creating an 8.8% share of total exports. Mexico (290M units), Indonesia (217M units), Japan (208M units), Germany (193M units), Vietnam (175M units) and France (142M units) took a little share of total exports.

Exports from China increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, India (+24.9%), France (+7.3%) and Japan (+2.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, India emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +24.9% from 2012-2022. Vietnam and Indonesia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-3.1%) and Mexico (-4.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+10 p.p.) and India (+7.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Germany (-1.5 p.p.) and Mexico (-2.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($29M) remains the largest coloured pencil lead supplier worldwide, comprising 34% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Japan ($14M), with a 16% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 13% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled +2.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Japan (-2.4% per year) and Germany (-0.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average coloured pencil lead export price amounted to $12 per thousand units, declining by -25.5% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a pronounced decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 18% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $16 per thousand units, and then dropped significantly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($66 per thousand units), while India ($1 per thousand units) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Vietnam (+3.1%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform