Copper Ores And Concentrates Market

The global market for copper ores and concentrates is projected to grow steadily over the next eight years, with an expected increase in both volume and value. Key statistics include top consuming and producing countries, import and export trends, and price fluctuations. The article provides detailed information on consumption patterns, production volumes, and the market value, offering insights into the future outlook for the industry.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for copper ores and concentrates worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 173M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $317.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Copper Ores And Concentrates

In 2022, approx. 131M tons of copper ores and concentrates were consumed worldwide; increasing by 2.9% compared with the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

The global copper ores and concentrates market value amounted to $204.7B in 2022, surging by 2.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +64.4% against 2016 indices. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of copper ores and concentrates consumption was Kazakhstan (73M tons), accounting for 56% of total volume. Moreover, copper ores and concentrates consumption in Kazakhstan exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, China (25M tons), threefold. Japan (5.2M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4% share.

In Kazakhstan, copper ores and concentrates consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: China (+12.4% per year) and Japan (+0.1% per year).

In value terms, Kazakhstan ($81.7B), China ($53.6B) and Japan ($13.7B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 73% of the global market.

Among the main consuming countries, China, with a CAGR of +12.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of copper ores and concentrates per capita consumption in 2022 were Kazakhstan (3.8 ton per person), North Macedonia (2.4 ton per person) and Peru (0.1 ton per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +12.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Copper Ores And Concentrates

For the eighth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in production of copper ores and concentrates, which increased by 2.3% to 120M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 8%. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, copper ores and concentrates production rose modestly to $172.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $173.7B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of copper ores and concentrates production was Kazakhstan (74M tons), accounting for 62% of total volume. Moreover, copper ores and concentrates production in Kazakhstan exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Peru (8.9M tons), eightfold. North Macedonia (5M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 4.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Kazakhstan totaled +4.3%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Peru (+0.8% per year) and North Macedonia (+1.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Copper Ores And Concentrates

Global copper ores and concentrates imports reached 42M tons in 2022, growing by 8.1% on 2021 figures. In general, total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +84.7% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 19%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, copper ores and concentrates imports rose modestly to $97.9B in 2022. Overall, imports saw prominent growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 47% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

China was the main importer of copper ores and concentrates in the world, with the volume of imports resulting at 25M tons, which was approx. 60% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Japan (5.2M tons) and South Korea (2.4M tons), together constituting an 18% share of total imports. India (1,129K tons), Spain (1,110K tons), Bulgaria (1,091K tons), Germany (964K tons) and Malaysia (685K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to copper ores and concentrates imports into China stood at +12.4%. At the same time, Malaysia (+128.7%), Bulgaria (+3.7%) and South Korea (+3.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Malaysia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +128.7% from 2012-2022. Japan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-2.5%), Spain (-3.1%) and India (-5.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+26 p.p.) and Malaysia (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while South Korea, Germany, Spain, India and Japan saw its share reduced by -1.8%, -3.2%, -4.1%, -5.8% and -10.2% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($56.3B) constitutes the largest market for imported copper ores and concentrates worldwide, comprising 58% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Japan ($13.7B), with a 14% share of global imports. It was followed by South Korea, with a 6.7% share.

In China, copper ores and concentrates imports expanded at an average annual rate of +12.8% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Japan (+1.8% per year) and South Korea (+3.7% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average copper ores and concentrates import price amounted to $2,341 per ton, declining by -5.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 42%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $2,476 per ton, and then reduced in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was India ($2,894 per ton), while Malaysia ($1,415 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia (+6.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Copper Ores And Concentrates

In 2022, shipments abroad of copper ores and concentrates increased by 7.9% to 30M tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Overall, total exports indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +21.1% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

In value terms, copper ores and concentrates exports declined to $86.7B in 2022. In general, exports continue to indicate a strong increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 52%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $93B, and then contracted in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Peru (6.7M tons), distantly followed by Indonesia (3.1M tons), Chile (2.8M tons), Australia (1.6M tons), Mexico (1.6M tons) and Kazakhstan (1.4M tons) represented the largest exporters of copper ores and concentrates, together constituting 56% of total exports. The following exporters - Mongolia (1.3M tons), Panama (1.3M tons), Serbia (1.2M tons), Brazil (1M tons), Spain (0.9M tons), South Korea (0.7M tons) and Russia (0.6M tons) - together made up 23% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to copper ores and concentrates exports from Peru stood at +5.7%. At the same time, Panama (+202.0%), Serbia (+75.6%), South Korea (+48.8%), Russia (+36.6%), Indonesia (+10.8%), Mexico (+10.5%), Mongolia (+9.8%), Kazakhstan (+6.4%), Spain (+5.3%), Brazil (+4.4%) and Chile (+2.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Panama emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +202.0% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Australia (-2.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Mongolia (+4.3 p.p.), Panama (+4.3 p.p.), Serbia (+3.9 p.p.), Indonesia (+3.4 p.p.), South Korea (+2.4 p.p.), Russia (+1.8 p.p.) and Mexico (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Peru (-1.5 p.p.), Chile (-3.8 p.p.) and Australia (-6.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Chile ($22.7B), Peru ($13.4B) and Indonesia ($9.2B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 52% share of global exports. Australia, Mexico, Panama, Brazil, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Serbia, South Korea, Spain and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

Panama, with a CAGR of +233.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average copper ores and concentrates export price amounted to $2,846 per ton, dropping by -13.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 35%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $3,291 per ton, and then shrank in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Chile ($8,029 per ton), while Spain ($1,430 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Panama (+10.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform