Encased Lead Pencil Market

The article discusses the global market for encased lead pencils and crayons, highlighting trends in consumption, production, import, and export. It forecasts growth in both volume and value of the market, providing detailed insights into key countries, growth rates, and price trends. The consumption, production, import, and export dynamics are analyzed, with China emerging as a dominant player in both production and export. The article provides valuable information for stakeholders in the pencil and crayon industry.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for pencils and crayons with leads encased in a rigid sheath worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 18B units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $175.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Pencils And Crayons With Leads Encased In A Rigid Sheath

In 2022, the amount of pencils and crayons with leads encased in a rigid sheath consumed worldwide totaled 16B units, approximately reflecting 2021. In general, the total consumption indicated a measured expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +58.6% against 2015 indices. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

The global encased lead pencil market revenue amounted to $142.1B in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a tangible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -2.2% against 2018 indices. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $145.3B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (3.9B units) constituted the country with the largest volume of encased lead pencil consumption, comprising approx. 25% of total volume. Moreover, encased lead pencil consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (1.6B units), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (1.5B units), with a 9.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at +3.0%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+2.0% per year) and India (+2.4% per year).

In value terms, the largest encased lead pencil markets worldwide were Japan ($27.6B), the United States ($26.1B) and China ($20.3B), together accounting for 52% of the global market. Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, Italy, India, Vietnam, Turkey, South Korea, Germany and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

Among the main consuming countries, the UK, with a CAGR of +32.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of encased lead pencil per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (14 units per person), South Korea (7.7 units per person) and Italy (6.7 units per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by the UK (with a CAGR of +36.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Pencils And Crayons With Leads Encased In A Rigid Sheath

In 2022, approx. 16B units of pencils and crayons with leads encased in a rigid sheath were produced worldwide; therefore, remained relatively stable against 2021 figures. In general, the total production indicated a noticeable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -0.0% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 34% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 16B units in 2020; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, encased lead pencil production reached $143.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated measured growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -2.7% against 2018 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 34% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $147.2B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of encased lead pencil production was China (4B units), accounting for 26% of total volume. Moreover, encased lead pencil production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (1.6B units), threefold. India (1.5B units) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9.6% share.

In China, encased lead pencil production expanded at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+2.0% per year) and India (+2.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Pencils And Crayons With Leads Encased In A Rigid Sheath

In 2022, purchases abroad of pencils and crayons with leads encased in a rigid sheath increased by 86% to 244M units for the first time since 2016, thus ending a five-year declining trend. Over the period under review, total imports indicated buoyant growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, encased lead pencil imports surged to $1.2B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $1.3B. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

Denmark represented the main importer of pencils and crayons with leads encased in a rigid sheath in the world, with the volume of imports finishing at 86M units, which was near 35% of total imports in 2022. The United States (19M units) held a 7.9% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Nigeria (7.1%). Germany (7M units), Brazil (6.3M units), the UK (5.1M units), France (4.9M units), the United Arab Emirates (4.7M units), Russia (4.1M units), Qatar (4M units), Indonesia (4M units) and the Netherlands (3.7M units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Denmark was also the fastest-growing in terms of the pencils and crayons with leads encased in a rigid sheath imports, with a CAGR of +67.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Nigeria (+22.7%), Qatar (+17.1%), Indonesia (+6.4%), Russia (+5.9%), Germany (+4.0%), France (+3.9%), the United Arab Emirates (+3.8%), the Netherlands (+3.1%) and Brazil (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the UK (-2.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Denmark (+35 p.p.) and Nigeria (+5.3 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Brazil, the UK and the United States saw its share reduced by -1.7%, -3% and -8.5% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($246M) constitutes the largest market for imported pencils and crayons with leads encased in a rigid sheath worldwide, comprising 20% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($101M), with an 8.3% share of global imports. It was followed by France, with a 3.8% share.

In the United States, encased lead pencil imports increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+8.0% per year) and France (+5.8% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average encased lead pencil import price amounted to $5 per unit, which is down by -37.9% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a perceptible curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the average import price increased by 13%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure at $8.1 per unit in 2021, and then fell remarkably in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($14 per unit), while Denmark ($0.1 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nigeria (+8.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Pencils And Crayons With Leads Encased In A Rigid Sheath

In 2022, the amount of pencils and crayons with leads encased in a rigid sheath exported worldwide rose significantly to 151M units, growing by 7.4% against 2021 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 26% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 166M units. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, encased lead pencil exports surged to $1.3B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

China prevails in exports structure, finishing at 81M units, which was approx. 54% of total exports in 2022. Brazil (10M units) took a 6.9% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by India (6.6%) and Germany (5.5%). Vietnam (5.5M units), Indonesia (4.5M units), Mexico (3.9M units), the Netherlands (3.7M units), France (3.3M units) and the Czech Republic (3.2M units) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to encased lead pencil exports from China stood at +2.2%. At the same time, India (+9.2%), the Netherlands (+8.0%), Vietnam (+7.1%), Germany (+3.9%), Brazil (+3.6%), France (+2.4%), Mexico (+2.2%) and the Czech Republic (+1.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, India emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +9.2% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Indonesia (-6.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of India and China increased by +3.4 and +2.2 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($616M) remains the largest encased lead pencil supplier worldwide, comprising 46% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($152M), with an 11% share of global exports. It was followed by Brazil, with a 6.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +6.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+2.7% per year) and Brazil (+2.8% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average encased lead pencil export price stood at $8.9 per unit in 2022, with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.0%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 an increase of 37%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $10 per unit. From 2017 to 2022, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($18 per unit), while India ($4.5 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+4.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform