Forged Stainless Steel Bar Market

The article discusses the projected growth in demand for forged stainless steel bars globally, with a forecasted increase in market volume and value by 2030. China is the leading consumer and producer in this market. The data also highlights trends in consumption, production, imports, and exports of stainless steel bars around the world over the past decade, with insights into key countries and their growth rates.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for forged stainless steel bar worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.3M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $22.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Forged Bars Of Stainless Steel

In 2022, consumption of forged bars of stainless steel was finally on the rise to reach 4M tons after six years of decline. In general, consumption, however, recorded a perceptible reduction. Global consumption peaked at 4.9M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global forged stainless steel bar market size shrank slightly to $17.7B in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, saw a mild downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the market value increased by 3.7%. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $20.5B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

China (1.2M tons) remains the largest forged stainless steel bar consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 29% of total volume. Moreover, forged stainless steel bar consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (476K tons), twofold. The United States (289K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7.3% share.

In China, forged stainless steel bar consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+0.1% per year) and the United States (-5.6% per year).

In value terms, the largest forged stainless steel bar markets worldwide were China ($3.8B), the United States ($3.5B) and India ($1.4B), with a combined 49% share of the global market. Russia, Indonesia, the UK, Japan, France, Turkey, Germany and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, France, with a CAGR of +2.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of forged stainless steel bar per capita consumption in 2022 were Russia (1,378 kg per 1000 persons), Turkey (1,349 kg per 1000 persons) and Germany (1,147 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +0.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

World Production of Forged Bars Of Stainless Steel

In 2022, after three years of decline, there was growth in production of forged bars of stainless steel, when its volume increased by 1.6% to 4M tons. In general, production, however, recorded a mild downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the production volume increased by 6.8% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 4.8M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, forged stainless steel bar production reduced slightly to $17.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the production volume increased by 6.1% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $20.2B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (1.2M tons) remains the largest forged stainless steel bar producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 30% of total volume. Moreover, forged stainless steel bar production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (531K tons), twofold. The United States (288K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.3% share.

In China, forged stainless steel bar production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.1% per year) and the United States (-5.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Forged Bars Of Stainless Steel

For the third consecutive year, the global market recorded decline in overseas purchases of forged bars of stainless steel, which decreased by -6.3% to 198K tons in 2022. Over the period under review, imports showed a abrupt descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 11% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 345K tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, forged stainless steel bar imports soared to $902M in 2022. In general, imports showed a pronounced slump. Global imports peaked at $1.1B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of forged stainless steel bar imports in 2022 were Germany (21K tons), Poland (17K tons) and Singapore (14K tons), together accounting for 26% of total import. China (7.8K tons), Belgium (7.7K tons), Italy (7.7K tons), South Korea (7.5K tons), Indonesia (6.8K tons), Thailand (6.7K tons), Botswana (5.8K tons), the UK (5.2K tons), Russia (4.3K tons) and Vietnam (4.1K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Belgium (with a CAGR of +30.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($139M) constitutes the largest market for imported forged bars of stainless steel worldwide, comprising 15% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Poland ($58M), with a 6.4% share of global imports. It was followed by China, with a 5.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Germany totaled +8.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Poland (+15.8% per year) and China (+3.5% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average forged stainless steel bar import price amounted to $4,558 per ton, picking up by 28% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.4%. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($6,539 per ton), while Botswana ($1,200 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+4.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Forged Bars Of Stainless Steel

After two years of decline, shipments abroad of forged bars of stainless steel increased by 1.2% to 195K tons in 2022. In general, exports, however, saw a pronounced setback. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when exports increased by 28%. The global exports peaked at 239K tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, forged stainless steel bar exports surged to $1,000M in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated slight growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +114.9% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 35%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

India was the largest exporter of forged bars of stainless steel in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 58K tons, which was near 30% of total exports in 2022. Germany (23K tons) held a 12% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Italy (11%), China (7.1%), Taiwan (Chinese) (5.9%) and Sweden (5.2%). Belgium (6.3K tons), Spain (5.6K tons), Singapore (5.5K tons), Poland (3.8K tons), Slovenia (3.8K tons) and South Africa (3.4K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to forged stainless steel bar exports from India stood at +18.6%. At the same time, Belgium (+35.5%), Spain (+24.7%), Taiwan (Chinese) (+5.8%), Slovenia (+4.0%) and China (+3.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belgium emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +35.5% from 2012-2022. Italy experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, South Africa (-2.5%), Sweden (-3.7%), Germany (-4.6%), Poland (-9.2%) and Singapore (-11.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. India (+25 p.p.), Taiwan (Chinese) (+3.2 p.p.), Belgium (+3.1 p.p.), China (+3.1 p.p.), Spain (+2.6 p.p.) and Italy (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Poland, Germany and Singapore saw its share reduced by -2.2%, -3.5% and -4.9% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest forged stainless steel bar supplying countries worldwide were India ($216M), Italy ($153M) and Germany ($151M), with a combined 52% share of global exports. Sweden, China, Taiwan (Chinese), Spain, Singapore, Belgium, Slovenia, Poland and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

Spain, with a CAGR of +30.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average forged stainless steel bar export price amounted to $5,119 per ton, jumping by 23% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.6%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($6,870 per ton), while South Africa ($1,343 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Singapore (+12.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform