Hot-Rolled Bearing Steel Bar Market

The global market for hot-rolled bars in bearing steels is expected to see continued growth over the next eight years, with an anticipated increase in consumption volume and value. The market performance is forecasted to accelerate, with projected CAGR of +3.1% in volume and +4.3% in value from 2022 to 2030. China remains the largest consumer and producer of hot-rolled bearing steel bars, with significant growth rates. Import and export trends show fluctuations in volumes and prices, with notable increases in certain countries like Israel and Chile. Overall, the market shows potential for growth and development in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for hot-rolled bars in bearing steels worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 15M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $18.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Hot-Rolled Bars In Bearing Steels

In 2022, consumption of hot-rolled bars in bearing steels increased by 8.9% to 12M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after four years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 15M tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global hot-rolled bearing steel bar market revenue rose significantly to $13.2B in 2022, picking up by 14% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

China (3.5M tons) remains the largest hot-rolled bearing steel bar consuming country worldwide, accounting for 29% of total volume. Moreover, hot-rolled bearing steel bar consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (827K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (733K tons), with a 6.1% share.

In China, hot-rolled bearing steel bar consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +6.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+0.6% per year) and the United States (+1.6% per year).

In value terms, China ($2.2B), the United States ($1.8B) and India ($733M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 36% of the global market. Germany, Mexico, Indonesia, Israel, Turkey, Thailand, Brazil, Russia, Peru and Taiwan (Chinese) lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 28%.

Among the main consuming countries, Israel, with a CAGR of +49.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of hot-rolled bearing steel bar per capita consumption was registered in Israel (25 kg per person), followed by Peru (7.2 kg per person), Germany (5.4 kg per person) and Thailand (3.7 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of hot-rolled bearing steel bar was estimated at 1.5 kg per person.

In Israel, hot-rolled bearing steel bar per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +49.1% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Peru (+12.8% per year) and Germany (+0.7% per year).

Production

World Production of Hot-Rolled Bars In Bearing Steels

Global hot-rolled bearing steel bar production contracted slightly to 11M tons in 2022, with a decrease of -3.1% against 2021 figures. Over the period under review, production showed a pronounced decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 60%. Global production peaked at 40M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, hot-rolled bearing steel bar production dropped to $9.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production showed a pronounced curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 38%. Global production peaked at $24.8B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of hot-rolled bearing steel bar production was China (5.3M tons), comprising approx. 47% of total volume. Moreover, hot-rolled bearing steel bar production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (851K tons), sixfold. Russia (763K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 6.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at -2.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.2% per year) and Russia (-1.1% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Hot-Rolled Bars In Bearing Steels

In 2022, global hot-rolled bearing steel bar imports declined modestly to 7.6M tons, remaining constant against the previous year's figure. Overall, total imports indicated a modest expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +22.8% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 27%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 11M tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, hot-rolled bearing steel bar imports surged to $9.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated noticeable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +88.8% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 56%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of hot-rolled bearing steel bar imports in 2022 were Germany (666K tons), Mexico (481K tons), Indonesia (389K tons), South Korea (331K tons), Italy (310K tons), Thailand (275K tons), the United States (265K tons), France (247K tons), Peru (245K tons), Belgium (244K tons), Israel (236K tons) and Taiwan (Chinese) (222K tons), together resulting at 52% of total import. China (204K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Israel (with a CAGR of +51.3%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest hot-rolled bearing steel bar importing markets worldwide were Germany ($1B), Mexico ($608M) and Indonesia ($605M), together accounting for 23% of global imports. Italy, the United States, Israel, France, Thailand, Belgium, China, South Korea, Taiwan (Chinese) and Peru lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Among the main importing countries, Israel, with a CAGR of +46.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average hot-rolled bearing steel bar import price stood at $1,299 per ton in 2022, increasing by 21% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a slight expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, hot-rolled bearing steel bar import price increased by +53.8% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 27%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Israel ($1,675 per ton), while Peru ($793 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (+3.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Hot-Rolled Bars In Bearing Steels

In 2022, approx. 6.8M tons of hot-rolled bars in bearing steels were exported worldwide; with a decrease of -16.8% compared with 2021 figures. In general, exports saw a noticeable reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when exports increased by 85%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 35M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, hot-rolled bearing steel bar exports rose modestly to $8.7B in 2022. Overall, exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 60% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $14.7B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2022, China (2M tons) represented the largest exporter of hot-rolled bars in bearing steels, comprising 30% of total exports. Japan (556K tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Russia (402K tons), Italy (395K tons), Germany (341K tons) and South Korea (326K tons). All these countries together took near 30% share of total exports. Chile (252K tons), Canada (246K tons), Turkey (222K tons), Belgium (222K tons), Poland (163K tons), Spain (157K tons) and the Czech Republic (153K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

Exports from China decreased at an average annual rate of -9.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Chile (+106.6%), Poland (+12.1%), Italy (+9.3%), Turkey (+9.1%), Belgium (+7.7%), South Korea (+6.4%) and Russia (+4.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Chile emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +106.6% from 2012-2022. Spain, Germany and Japan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Czech Republic (-1.7%) and Canada (-2.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Italy (+4.1 p.p.), Chile (+3.7 p.p.), Russia (+3.2 p.p.), South Korea (+2.9 p.p.), Japan (+2.4 p.p.), Turkey (+2.3 p.p.), Belgium (+2.1 p.p.) and Poland (+1.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of China (-28 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($2.1B) remains the largest hot-rolled bearing steel bar supplier worldwide, comprising 24% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Japan ($720M), with an 8.3% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 7.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled -5.2%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Japan (-0.0% per year) and Germany (+1.5% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average hot-rolled bearing steel bar export price stood at $1,286 per ton in 2022, jumping by 26% against the previous year. Overall, the export price recorded perceptible growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the average export price increased by 114%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($1,800 per ton), while Russia ($580 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+4.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform