Iron Ore Market

The global iron ore market is expected to continue growing with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% in consumption and +4.1% in value terms from 2022 to 2030. In 2022, consumption decreased for the first time since 2015, while production also declined. China dominates both imports and exports, with notable growth in Australia and the Netherlands. Iron ores and concentrates, non-agglomerated, remain the dominant type in imports and exports. Average prices fluctuated over the years, with notable growth in 2021 and declines in 2022.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for iron ores and concentrates worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3,930M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $540.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Iron Ores And Concentrates

In 2022, consumption of iron ores and concentrates decreased by -1.1% to 3,303M tons for the first time since 2015, thus ending a six-year rising trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 3,339M tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

The global iron ore market revenue dropped to $390.9B in 2022, waning by -13.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a tangible expansion. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $450.8B, and then fell in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (1,214M tons), Australia (742M tons) and Russia (428M tons), together comprising 72% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Australia (with a CAGR of +61.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($136.6B), Australia ($75.7B) and Russia ($62.2B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 70% of the global market.

Australia, with a CAGR of +61.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of iron ore per capita consumption was registered in Australia (28 ton per person), followed by Russia (3 ton per person), South Korea (1.4 ton per person) and China (0.9 ton per person), while the world average per capita consumption of iron ore was estimated at 0.4 ton per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the iron ore per capita consumption in Australia totaled +58.9%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Russia (-0.1% per year) and South Korea (+0.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Iron Ores And Concentrates

After six years of growth, production of iron ores and concentrates decreased by -3.8% to 3,261M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 17%. Global production peaked at 3,389M tons in 2021, and then declined slightly in the following year.

In value terms, iron ore production declined remarkably to $331.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a slight increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 55%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $402.7B, and then reduced remarkably in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of iron ore production was Australia (1,625M tons), comprising approx. 50% of total volume. Moreover, iron ore production in Australia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Brazil (463M tons), fourfold. Russia (438M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 13% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Australia totaled +11.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (-0.2% per year) and Russia (-0.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Iron Ores And Concentrates

In 2022, global imports of iron ores and concentrates reached 1,632M tons, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2021 figures. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 12%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, iron ore imports reduced markedly to $197.6B in 2022. In general, imports showed moderate growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 56% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $259.2B, and then dropped sharply in the following year.

Imports By Country

China dominates imports structure, reaching 1,181M tons, which was near 72% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Japan (104M tons), making up a 6.4% share of total imports. South Korea (70M tons), Germany (35M tons) and the Netherlands (26M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, the Netherlands (+11.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +11.3% from 2012-2022. South Korea and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Japan (-2.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+9 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Japan (-4.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($137.7B) constitutes the largest market for imported iron ores and concentrates worldwide, comprising 70% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Japan ($13.7B), with a 6.9% share of global imports. It was followed by South Korea, with a 4.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +3.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Japan (-3.3% per year) and South Korea (-0.6% per year).

Imports By Type

Iron ores and concentrates, non-agglomerated dominates imports structure, resulting at 1,517M tons, which was near 93% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by iron ores and concentrates, agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites) (115M tons), creating a 7% share of total imports.

Iron ores and concentrates, non-agglomerated was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +4.0% from 2012 to 2022. iron ores and concentrates, agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites) (-2.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of iron ores and concentrates, non-agglomerated (+5.5 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of iron ores and concentrates, agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites) (-5.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, iron ores and concentrates, non-agglomerated ($177.6B) constitutes the largest type of iron ores and concentrates imported worldwide, comprising 90% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by iron ores and concentrates, agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites) ($20B), with a 10% share of global imports.

For iron ores and concentrates, non-agglomerated, imports increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Type

The average iron ore import price stood at $121 per ton in 2022, with a decrease of -24.2% against the previous year. Overall, the import price recorded a slight downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 54% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $160 per ton, and then shrank notably in the following year.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was iron ores and concentrates, agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites) ($175 per ton), while the price for iron ores and concentrates, non-agglomerated amounted to $117 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by iron ore and concentrate, agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites) (+0.9%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average iron ore import price amounted to $121 per ton, dropping by -24.2% against the previous year. Overall, the import price showed a slight slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 54% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $160 per ton, and then dropped remarkably in the following year.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Germany ($141 per ton) and Japan ($132 per ton), while China ($117 per ton) and South Korea ($129 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+0.2%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Iron Ores And Concentrates

In 2022, after ten years of growth, there was decline in shipments abroad of iron ores and concentrates, when their volume decreased by -5% to 1,590M tons. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when exports increased by 11% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 1,673M tons in 2021, and then declined slightly in the following year.

In value terms, iron ore exports shrank rapidly to $160.1B in 2022. In general, exports, however, showed a moderate increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 53%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $224B, and then dropped significantly in the following year.

Exports By Country

Australia was the main exporting country with an export of around 884M tons, which recorded 56% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Brazil (344M tons), making up a 22% share of total exports. The following exporters - Canada (55M tons), South Africa (45M tons) and Ukraine (24M tons) - together made up 7.8% of total exports.

Australia was also the fastest-growing in terms of the iron ores and concentrates exports, with a CAGR of +5.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Canada (+4.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Brazil experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, South Africa (-2.8%) and Ukraine (-3.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Australia increased by +13 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Australia ($86B) remains the largest iron ore supplier worldwide, comprising 54% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Brazil ($28.9B), with an 18% share of global exports. It was followed by Canada, with a 4.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Australia totaled +4.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (-0.7% per year) and Canada (+5.0% per year).

Exports By Type

In 2022, iron ores and concentrates, non-agglomerated (1,440M tons) represented the key type of iron ores and concentrates, achieving 90% of total exports. It was distantly followed by iron ores and concentrates, agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites) (160M tons), mixing up a 10% share of total exports.

Iron ores and concentrates, non-agglomerated was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +3.5% from 2012 to 2022. iron ores and concentrates, agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites) (-1.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of iron ores and concentrates, non-agglomerated increased by +6 percentage points.

In value terms, iron ores and concentrates, non-agglomerated ($136.8B) remains the largest type of iron ores and concentrates supplied worldwide, comprising 85% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by iron ores and concentrates, agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites) ($23.3B), with a 15% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of iron ores and concentrates, non-agglomerated exports stood at +2.9%.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average iron ore export price amounted to $101 per ton, shrinking by -24.8% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average export price increased by 51% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $134 per ton, and then reduced sharply in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was iron ores and concentrates, agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites) ($146 per ton), while the average price for exports of iron ores and concentrates, non-agglomerated totaled $95 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by iron ore and concentrate, agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites) (+0.6%).

Export Prices By Country

The average iron ore export price stood at $101 per ton in 2022, which is down by -24.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 51%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $134 per ton, and then dropped rapidly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was South Africa ($144 per ton), while Brazil ($84 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ukraine (+3.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform