Potassium Chloride (MOP) Market

The potassium chloride (MOP) market is expected to show a slight decrease in consumption trends over the next eight years. The market is forecast to decrease in both volume and value terms, with a CAGR of -0.3% for volume and +1.4% for value from 2022 to 2030. In 2022, global consumption of potassium chloride reached 100M tons, with Brazil, China, and the United States being the top consumers. Production increased by 18% to 84M tons in 2022, with Canada being the largest producer. Imports and exports also saw significant growth, with Brazil, the United States, and Canada being major players in the global market. The average import price in 2022 was $387 per ton, while the average export price was $430 per ton. Overall, the potassium chloride market is expected to continue growing in the immediate future, despite fluctuations in trends.

Market Forecast

The potassium chloride (MOP) market is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -0.3% for the eight-year period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to depress the market volume to 98M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $42.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Potassium Chloride (MOP)

In 2022, the amount of potassium chloride (MOP) consumed worldwide soared to 100M tons, increasing by 28% on the year before. In general, the total consumption indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +64.7% against 2016 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The global potassium chloride (MOP) market size soared to $37.8B in 2022, increasing by 46% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a buoyant increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +104.1% against 2016 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Brazil (23M tons), China (21M tons) and the United States (15M tons), with a combined 60% share of global consumption. Belarus, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia, South Korea and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 22%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Belarus (with a CAGR of +13.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($9.2B), China ($7.4B) and the United States ($4.8B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 56% of the global market. Belarus, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, South Korea and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 19%.

Among the main consuming countries, Belarus, with a CAGR of +10.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of potassium chloride (MOP) per capita consumption was registered in Belarus (696 kg per person), followed by Brazil (105 kg per person), Malaysia (97 kg per person) and the United States (46 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of potassium chloride (MOP) was estimated at 13 kg per person.

In Belarus, potassium chloride (MOP) per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +13.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (+10.7% per year) and Malaysia (+9.7% per year).

Production

World Production of Potassium Chloride (MOP)

For the third consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in production of potassium chloride (MOP), which increased by 18% to 84M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +25.5% against 2018 indices. As a result, production attained the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, potassium chloride (MOP) production dropped to $19.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 30%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $21.9B, and then dropped in the following year.

Production By Country

Canada (34M tons) remains the largest potassium chloride (MOP) producing country worldwide, accounting for 40% of total volume. Moreover, potassium chloride (MOP) production in Canada exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Russia (14M tons), twofold. Belarus (12M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 15% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Canada amounted to +7.4%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Russia (+4.5% per year) and Belarus (+4.6% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Potassium Chloride (MOP)

In 2022, global imports of potassium chloride (MOP) surged to 80M tons, with an increase of 42% against the previous year. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a buoyant increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +54.2% against 2019 indices. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, potassium chloride (MOP) imports skyrocketed to $31B in 2022. In general, imports enjoyed resilient growth. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

Brazil (22M tons) and the United States (19M tons) represented roughly 52% of total imports in 2022. China (11M tons) held a 13% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by India (4.8%). Malaysia (3.3M tons), Indonesia (3.2M tons), Thailand (1.4M tons) and Belgium (1.3M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Brazil (with a CAGR of +12.2%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest potassium chloride (MOP) importing markets worldwide were Brazil ($9.4B), the United States ($6B) and China ($4.2B), together comprising 63% of global imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, Brazil, with a CAGR of +10.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average potassium chloride (MOP) import price amounted to $387 per ton, increasing by 26% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, recorded a mild downturn. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $470 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($584 per ton), while Malaysia ($269 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (-1.5%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Potassium Chloride (MOP)

In 2022, shipments abroad of potassium chloride (MOP) increased by 30% to 65M tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +37.6% against 2020 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, potassium chloride (MOP) exports surged to $27.7B in 2022. Overall, exports posted a remarkable increase. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Canada (32M tons) represented the largest exporter of potassium chloride (MOP), generating 50% of total exports. Russia (12M tons) took a 19% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Belarus (9.1%) and the United States (6.8%). The following exporters - Germany (2.7M tons), Jordan (2.5M tons) and Lao People's Democratic Republic (1.3M tons) - together made up 10% of total exports.

Exports from Canada increased at an average annual rate of +8.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Lao People's Democratic Republic (+39.6%), the United States (+9.4%), Jordan (+6.7%) and Russia (+5.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Lao People's Democratic Republic emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +39.6% from 2012-2022. Belarus experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-3.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Canada, Germany and Lao People's Democratic Republic increased by +8, +4.2 and +1.9 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Canada ($12.6B) remains the largest potassium chloride (MOP) supplier worldwide, comprising 45% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Russia ($5.3B), with a 19% share of global exports. It was followed by the United States, with an 8.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Canada stood at +7.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+4.3% per year) and the United States (+10.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average potassium chloride (MOP) export price amounted to $430 per ton, increasing by 41% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The global export price peaked at $454 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($666 per ton), while Belarus ($356 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+5.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform