Potassium Nitrate Market

The article discusses the increasing demand for potassium nitrates globally, with market performance expected to grow at a CAGR of +2.5% from 2022 to 2030. Despite a decline in consumption in 2022, the market volume is projected to reach 3M tons by 2030, with a value of $4.2B. China is the largest consumer of potassium nitrate, while Chile leads in exports. The Netherlands has the highest export price, and Belarus has shown the fastest growth in exports. Overall, the market is expected to continue growing in the immediate term.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for potassium nitrates worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $4.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Potassium Nitrates

In 2022, after eight years of growth, there was decline in consumption of potassium nitrates, when its volume decreased by -2.3% to 2.5M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 2.5M tons in 2021, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

The global potassium nitrate market size expanded significantly to $3B in 2022, rising by 5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

China (542K tons) remains the largest potassium nitrate consuming country worldwide, accounting for 22% of total volume. Moreover, potassium nitrate consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (253K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (219K tons), with an 8.9% share.

In China, potassium nitrate consumption increased at an average annual rate of +7.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+3.1% per year) and India (+6.6% per year).

In value terms, the largest potassium nitrate markets worldwide were India ($529M), China ($431M) and Japan ($203M), with a combined 38% share of the global market. The United States, France, Spain, the UK, Jordan, Russia, the Netherlands, Bangladesh, Italy and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.

Among the main consuming countries, Jordan, with a CAGR of +47.2%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of potassium nitrate per capita consumption was registered in Jordan (9.2 kg per person), followed by the Netherlands (3.9 kg per person), Spain (3.7 kg per person) and the UK (1.2 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of potassium nitrate was estimated at 0.3 kg per person.

In Jordan, potassium nitrate per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +43.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the Netherlands (+4.4% per year) and Spain (-1.0% per year).

Production

World Production of Potassium Nitrates

After six years of growth, production of potassium nitrates decreased by -1.4% to 2.3M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +62.2% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 10%. Global production peaked at 2.4M tons in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, potassium nitrate production fell to $2.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +50.1% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 13%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $2.7B, and then dropped in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (625K tons), Chile (509K tons) and India (220K tons), with a combined 58% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +9.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Potassium Nitrates

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas purchases of potassium nitrates, when their volume decreased by -5.9% to 1M tons. Over the period under review, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 14%. Global imports peaked at 1.1M tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, potassium nitrate imports soared to $1.2B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

Spain (191K tons), the Netherlands (171K tons) and the United States (121K tons) represented roughly 48% of total imports in 2022. Italy (41K tons), the United Arab Emirates (34K tons), Turkey (32K tons), South Africa (28K tons), France (28K tons), Morocco (27K tons), Peru (27K tons), Australia (22K tons), Belgium (22K tons) and Argentina (20K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +20.2%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest potassium nitrate importing markets worldwide were Spain ($217M), the Netherlands ($216M) and the United States ($112M), with a combined 45% share of global imports. Italy, Morocco, Turkey, South Africa, Australia, Belgium, Peru, the United Arab Emirates, France and Argentina lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

The United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +15.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average potassium nitrate import price stood at $1,190 per ton in 2022, surging by 53% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Morocco ($1,515 per ton), while the United Arab Emirates ($623 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+5.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Potassium Nitrates

In 2022, global exports of potassium nitrates reduced modestly to 888K tons, which is down by -4.1% compared with the year before. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 41% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 1M tons. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, potassium nitrate exports soared to $1B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +57.6% against 2019 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Chile was the major exporter of potassium nitrates in the world, with the volume of exports reaching 509K tons, which was near 57% of total exports in 2022. The Netherlands (103K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by China (87K tons). All these countries together held approx. 21% share of total exports. Denmark (34K tons), Spain (27K tons), the United States (22K tons), Belarus (19K tons), Belgium (17K tons) and Jordan (14K tons) held a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to potassium nitrate exports from Chile stood at +2.0%. At the same time, Belarus (+103.2%), China (+15.3%), the Netherlands (+15.2%) and Spain (+2.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belarus emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +103.2% from 2012-2022. By contrast, the United States (-2.4%), Denmark (-2.6%), Belgium (-12.3%) and Jordan (-18.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the Netherlands (+8.3 p.p.), China (+7 p.p.), Chile (+2.4 p.p.) and Belarus (+2.1 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Denmark (-2 p.p.), Belgium (-6.3 p.p.) and Jordan (-12.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Chile ($541M) remains the largest potassium nitrate supplier worldwide, comprising 54% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Netherlands ($146M), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by China, with a 10% share.

In Chile, potassium nitrate exports increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Netherlands (+17.7% per year) and China (+16.3% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average potassium nitrate export price amounted to $1,133 per ton, growing by 50% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.0%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,418 per ton), while the United States ($756 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belarus (+18.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform