Preserved Swine Meat Cut Market

The global market for prepared or preserved shoulders and cuts of swine meat is on an upward consumption trend, with anticipated growth in both volume and value. Consumption peaked in 2022, reaching 1.7M tons and $6.9B in value. China, Japan, and India were the largest consumers in 2022, while Spain showed the highest growth rate in consumption. Production and imports also experienced growth, with the United States leading in exports. Prices fluctuated but remained relatively stable overall. Overall, the market is projected to continue expanding in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for prepared or preserved shoulders and cuts of swine meat worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.7M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $8.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Prepared Or Preserved Shoulders And Cuts Of Swine Meat

In 2022, approx. 1.7M tons of prepared or preserved shoulders and cuts of swine meat were consumed worldwide; picking up by 3.3% on 2021. In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 9.6%. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 1.7M tons; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

The global preserved swine meat cut market value expanded to $6.9B in 2022, growing by 3.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $7.1B. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (256K tons), Japan (146K tons) and India (101K tons), together comprising 30% of global consumption. The United States, Spain, Russia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Mexico and Ethiopia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +10.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($1.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Japan ($494M). It was followed by Spain.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Japan (+2.5% per year) and Spain (+10.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of preserved swine meat cut per capita consumption in 2022 were Spain (1,651 kg per 1000 persons), Japan (1,170 kg per 1000 persons) and Russia (346 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +10.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Prepared Or Preserved Shoulders And Cuts Of Swine Meat

Global preserved swine meat cut production expanded slightly to 1.6M tons in 2022, rising by 3.7% on the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 9.6% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 1.6M tons; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, preserved swine meat cut production rose slightly to $6.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $6.8B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (256K tons), the United States (132K tons) and India (101K tons), with a combined 31% share of global production. Spain, Russia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Bangladesh and Ethiopia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +10.1%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Prepared Or Preserved Shoulders And Cuts Of Swine Meat

Global preserved swine meat cut imports rose rapidly to 171K tons in 2022, with an increase of 6% against 2021 figures. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at 180K tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, preserved swine meat cut imports reached $614M in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 20% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $633M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

Japan dominates imports structure, reaching 146K tons, which was approx. 86% of total imports in 2022. Germany (4.4K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

Japan was also the fastest-growing in terms of the prepared or preserved shoulders and cuts of swine meat imports, with a CAGR of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022. Germany (-1.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Japan (+2.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Japan ($501M) constitutes the largest market for imported prepared or preserved shoulders and cuts of swine meat worldwide, comprising 82% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Germany ($18M), with a 3% share of global imports.

In Japan, preserved swine meat cut imports increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Country

The average preserved swine meat cut import price stood at $3,597 per ton in 2022, waning by -3% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the average import price increased by 18%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $3,821 per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($4,189 per ton), while Japan amounted to $3,434 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+1.9%).

Exports

World Exports of Prepared Or Preserved Shoulders And Cuts Of Swine Meat

In 2022, shipments abroad of prepared or preserved shoulders and cuts of swine meat increased by 18% to 80K tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. In general, total exports indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +66.6% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 41%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

In value terms, preserved swine meat cut exports expanded remarkably to $286M in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +66.9% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 39%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The United States was the largest exporter of prepared or preserved shoulders and cuts of swine meat in the world, with the volume of exports reaching 32K tons, which was near 40% of total exports in 2022. Ireland (9.1K tons) held an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Mexico (11%), Chile (10%) and Belgium (5.5%). Spain (2.6K tons), Poland (2.1K tons), Denmark (2K tons), Germany (1.9K tons), the Netherlands (1.6K tons) and France (1.3K tons) held a little share of total exports.

The United States was also the fastest-growing in terms of the prepared or preserved shoulders and cuts of swine meat exports, with a CAGR of +22.5% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Ireland (+15.5%), Mexico (+6.4%), Chile (+4.6%), Germany (+3.9%), Spain (+3.2%), Poland (+1.7%) and France (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Denmark experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-1.6%) and Belgium (-3.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the United States (+30 p.p.) and Ireland (+6.1 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Poland (-1.7 p.p.), Chile (-2.5 p.p.), Denmark (-2.5 p.p.), the Netherlands (-2.7 p.p.) and Belgium (-10.6 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($109M) remains the largest preserved swine meat cut supplier worldwide, comprising 38% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Ireland ($33M), with an 11% share of global exports. It was followed by Mexico, with a 9.7% share.

In the United States, preserved swine meat cut exports expanded at an average annual rate of +21.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Ireland (+16.7% per year) and Mexico (+5.7% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average preserved swine meat cut export price stood at $3,575 per ton in 2022, waning by -7.4% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 an increase of 10%. The global export price peaked at $4,310 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($6,228 per ton), while France ($2,525 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Denmark (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform