Rare Earth Metal Market

The global rare earth metals market is projected to experience growth in both volume and value from 2022 to 2030, with a forecasted increase in consumption and production. China dominates in both consumption and production of rare earth metals, with Malaysia showing significant growth in imports. Australia leads in exports, with a strong CAGR in the value of exports over the past decade. Overall, the market is expected to see steady growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for rare earth metals worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 365K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $7.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Rare Earth Metals

In 2022, consumption of rare earth metals decreased by -9.8% to 308K tons, falling for the second consecutive year after six years of growth. In general, the total consumption indicated a notable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -10.8% against 2020 indices. Global consumption peaked at 345K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global rare earth metal market revenue rose modestly to $5.3B in 2022, increasing by 3.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a resilient increase. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $5.3B in 2020; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Consumption By Country

China (129K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of rare earth metal consumption, accounting for 42% of total volume. Moreover, rare earth metal consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Australia (58K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Malaysia (35K tons), with an 11% share.

In China, rare earth metal consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Australia (-5.1% per year) and Malaysia (+30.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($2.2B), the United States ($1.4B) and Myanmar ($498M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 78% share of the global market. Japan, Malaysia and Australia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 12%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Malaysia, with a CAGR of +30.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of rare earth metal per capita consumption was registered in Australia (2,222 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Malaysia (1,066 kg per 1000 persons), Myanmar (521 kg per 1000 persons) and China (91 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of rare earth metal was estimated at 39 kg per 1000 persons.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the rare earth metal per capita consumption in Australia stood at -6.5%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Malaysia (+28.8% per year) and Myanmar (+17.0% per year).

Production

World Production of Rare Earth Metals

In 2022, global production of rare earth metals was estimated at 344K tons, remaining constant against the year before. In general, the total production indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -0.5% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 346K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, rare earth metal production reached $4.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 141% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $4.8B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (138K tons), Australia (127K tons) and Myanmar (29K tons), together comprising 85% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Myanmar (with a CAGR of +17.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Rare Earth Metals

In 2022, overseas purchases of rare earth metals increased by 14% to 46K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. In general, imports enjoyed a remarkable increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 260%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 62K tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, rare earth metal imports skyrocketed to $866M in 2022. Overall, imports saw a notable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 66% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

Malaysia was the largest importer of rare earth metals in the world, with the volume of imports reaching 34K tons, which was approx. 74% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Japan (8.1K tons), mixing up a 17% share of total imports.

Malaysia was also the fastest-growing in terms of the rare earth metals imports, with a CAGR of +32.1% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Japan (+5.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. While the share of Malaysia (+55 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Japan (-24.6 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Japan ($582M) constitutes the largest market for imported rare earth metals worldwide, comprising 67% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Malaysia ($164M), with a 19% share of global imports.

In Japan, rare earth metal imports increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average rare earth metal import price amounted to $18,652 per ton, jumping by 31% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw a deep downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when the average import price increased by 114%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $47,450 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($71,631 per ton), while Malaysia amounted to $4,790 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia (+5.0%).

Exports

World Exports of Rare Earth Metals

In 2022, overseas shipments of rare earth metals increased by 101% to 82K tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. Over the period under review, exports posted a significant increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 571% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 114K tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, rare earth metal exports soared to $1.1B in 2022. In general, exports posted resilient growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 92% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

Australia was the major exporter of rare earth metals in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 68K tons, which was near 83% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by China (9.1K tons), creating an 11% share of total exports. Vietnam (3.1K tons) held a minor share of total exports.

Australia was also the fastest-growing in terms of the rare earth metals exports, with a CAGR of +41.6% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, China (+12.7%) and Vietnam (+7.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Australia increased by +64 percentage points.

In value terms, the largest rare earth metal supplying countries worldwide were China ($393M), Australia ($329M) and Vietnam ($161M), with a combined 83% share of global exports.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Australia, with a CAGR of +49.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average rare earth metal export price stood at $12,889 per ton in 2022, which is down by -20% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a deep reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the average export price increased by 148%. The global export price peaked at $33,401 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Vietnam ($51,817 per ton), while Australia ($4,816 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Vietnam (+6.5%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform