Recovered Paper Market

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global recovered paper market, forecasting an upward consumption trend with a projected CAGR of +1.6% from 2022 to 2030. The market volume is expected to reach 269M tons by 2030, with a value of $73B. Detailed insights are given on consumption, production, imports, exports, and average prices over the years, highlighting key trends and growth rates in various countries. China leads in both consumption and production, while the United States tops the list of exporters. Various types of recovered paper are analyzed in terms of volume, value, and growth rates. Overall, the article offers a detailed overview of the global recovered paper market and its key players.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for recovered paper worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 269M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $73B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Recovered Paper

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in consumption of recovered paper, when its volume decreased by -1.9% to 237M tons. In general, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 4% against the previous year. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 241M tons, and then fell modestly in the following year.

The global recovered paper market value reduced to $55.2B in 2022, declining by -7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $59.3B, and then dropped in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (66M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of recovered paper consumption, comprising approx. 28% of total volume. Moreover, recovered paper consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (30M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Germany (17M tons), with a 7.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at -1.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+1.0% per year) and Germany (+0.4% per year).

In value terms, China ($23.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($5.5B). It was followed by Japan.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+1.8% per year) and Japan (-0.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of recovered paper per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (203 kg per person), South Korea (167 kg per person) and Japan (128 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Mexico (with a CAGR of +7.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Recovered Paper

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in production of recovered paper, when its volume decreased by -1.1% to 239M tons. In general, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 5% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 242M tons, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

In value terms, recovered paper production reduced to $59.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 39% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $68.9B, and then reduced in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (66M tons), the United States (45M tons) and Japan (18M tons), with a combined 54% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +3.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Recovered Paper

In 2022, supplies from abroad of recovered paper decreased by -7.2% to 43M tons, falling for the sixth consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, imports recorded a perceptible descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when imports increased by 3.5% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 60M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, recovered paper imports reduced to $10.5B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports showed a mild downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 52% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $12.3B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of recovered paper imports in 2022 were India (6.7M tons), Germany (5.3M tons), Vietnam (3.8M tons), the Netherlands (2.7M tons), Indonesia (2.7M tons), Thailand (2.3M tons), Mexico (2M tons), Malaysia (1.8M tons), Spain (1.5M tons), Austria (1.5M tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (1.4M tons) and Turkey (1.3M tons), together reaching 76% of total import. South Korea (1.3M tons) took a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +38.3%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest recovered paper importing markets worldwide were India ($1.9B), Germany ($1.3B) and Vietnam ($737M), together accounting for 38% of global imports. Mexico, Thailand, the Netherlands, Indonesia, Malaysia, Austria, South Korea, Turkey, Taiwan (Chinese) and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 43%.

Turkey, with a CAGR of +41.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of unbleached kraft paper or paperboard or of corrugated paper or paperboard represented the key type of recovered paper in the world, with the volume of imports reaching 22M tons, which was near 51% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard n.e.s. in heading no. 4707 and of unsorted waste and scrap (13M tons), paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of mechanical pulp (eg newspapers, journals and similar printed matter) (4.9M tons) and paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of bleached chemical pulp, not coloured in the mass (3.1M tons), together making up a 49% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading imported products, was attained by paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of bleached chemical pulp, not coloured in the mass (with a CAGR of -0.8%), while imports for the other products experienced a decline in the imports figures.

In value terms, paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of unbleached kraft paper or paperboard or of corrugated paper or paperboard ($4.9B), paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard n.e.s. in heading no. 4707 and of unsorted waste and scrap ($3.2B) and paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of mechanical pulp (eg newspapers, journals and similar printed matter) ($1.3B) appeared to be the products with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 89% of global imports. Paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of bleached chemical pulp, not coloured in the mass lagged somewhat behind, accounting for a further 11%.

Paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of bleached chemical pulp, not coloured in the mass, with a CAGR of +2.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main imported products over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced mixed trends in the imports figures.

Import Prices By Type

The average recovered paper import price stood at $242 per ton in 2022, surging by 6.7% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.9%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 53%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of bleached chemical pulp, not coloured in the mass ($370 per ton), while the price for paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of unbleached kraft paper or paperboard or of corrugated paper or paperboard ($221 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of bleached chemical pulp, not coloured in the mass (+3.1%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average recovered paper import price stood at $242 per ton in 2022, increasing by 6.7% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.9%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 53%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($345 per ton), while Spain ($191 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+3.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Recovered Paper

In 2022, the amount of recovered paper exported worldwide dropped to 46M tons, which is down by -3.2% on 2021 figures. In general, exports recorded a pronounced shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 5.9%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 61M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, recovered paper exports declined slightly to $9.8B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 60% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $10.4B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

The United States represented the main exporter of recovered paper in the world, with the volume of exports resulting at 16M tons, which was near 34% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by the UK (3.8M tons), France (2.5M tons) and the Netherlands (2.1M tons), together committing a 19% share of total exports. The following exporters - Japan (1.8M tons), Canada (1.7M tons), Germany (1.6M tons), Italy (1.5M tons), Belgium (1.2M tons), Poland (1.2M tons), Australia (1.1M tons), the Czech Republic (0.8M tons) and Spain (0.8M tons) - together made up 26% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to recovered paper exports from the United States stood at -2.6%. At the same time, Poland (+8.8%) and the Czech Republic (+2.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Poland emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +8.8% from 2012-2022. Spain experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the UK (-1.5%), France (-2.0%), Italy (-2.8%), Canada (-2.9%), Australia (-4.1%), Belgium (-4.8%), the Netherlands (-5.0%), Germany (-6.2%) and Japan (-9.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Poland (+1.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Germany and Japan saw its share reduced by -1.5% and -4.1% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($3.3B) remains the largest recovered paper supplier worldwide, comprising 33% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the UK ($923M), with a 9.4% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 5.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States was relatively modest. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the UK (+1.0% per year) and the Netherlands (-2.3% per year).

Exports By Type

In 2022, paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of unbleached kraft paper or paperboard or of corrugated paper or paperboard (26M tons) represented the largest type of recovered paper, committing 58% of total exports. Paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard n.e.s. in heading no. 4707 and of unsorted waste and scrap (11M tons) held a 24% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of mechanical pulp (eg newspapers, journals and similar printed matter) (11%) and paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of bleached chemical pulp, not coloured in the mass (7.6%).

Paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of unbleached kraft paper or paperboard or of corrugated paper or paperboard experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports. paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of bleached chemical pulp, not coloured in the mass (-1.6%), paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard n.e.s. in heading no. 4707 and of unsorted waste and scrap (-3.1%) and paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of mechanical pulp (eg newspapers, journals and similar printed matter) (-9.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of unbleached kraft paper or paperboard or of corrugated paper or paperboard increased by +10 percentage points. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of unbleached kraft paper or paperboard or of corrugated paper or paperboard ($5.3B) remains the largest type of recovered paper supplied worldwide, comprising 53% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard n.e.s. in heading no. 4707 and of unsorted waste and scrap ($2.3B), with a 24% share of global exports. It was followed by paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of mechanical pulp (eg newspapers, journals and similar printed matter), with a 12% share.

For paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of unbleached kraft paper or paperboard or of corrugated paper or paperboard, exports remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard n.e.s. in heading no. 4707 and of unsorted waste and scrap (+0.3% per year) and paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of mechanical pulp (eg newspapers, journals and similar printed matter) (-6.2% per year).

Export Prices By Type

The average recovered paper export price stood at $215 per ton in 2022, leveling off at the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 54%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard made mainly of bleached chemical pulp, not coloured in the mass ($303 per ton), while the average price for exports of paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of unbleached kraft paper or paperboard or of corrugated paper or paperboard ($199 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by paper or paperboard; waste and scrap, of paper or paperboard n.e.s. in heading no. 4707 and of unsorted waste and scrap (+3.6%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average recovered paper export price stood at $215 per ton in 2022, standing approx. at the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 54%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($257 per ton), while Canada ($157 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+2.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform