Sweetened Condensed And Evaporated Milk Market

The article discusses the increasing demand for sweetened condensed or evaporated milk worldwide, predicting a continued growth trend with a projected CAGR of +2.4% in volume and +4.4% in value from 2022 to 2030. In 2022, global consumption reached 2.6M tons, with the United States as the largest consumer. Production also remained stable at 2.6M tons, led by the United States. The market saw a decrease in imports but an increase in exports, with Belgium and the Netherlands as the top exporters. Average import and export prices also showed slight increases over the years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3.1M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $8.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Condensed Or Evaporated Milk (Sweetened)

In 2022, global sweetened condensed and evaporated milk consumption reached 2.6M tons, leveling off at 2021. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 2.7M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The revenue of the market for condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) worldwide was estimated at $5.8B in 2022, standing approx. at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level at $5.8B in 2014; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of sweetened condensed and evaporated milk consumption was the United States (783K tons), comprising approx. 30% of total volume. Moreover, sweetened condensed and evaporated milk consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Malaysia (243K tons), threefold. Germany (242K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 9.3% share.

In the United States, sweetened condensed and evaporated milk consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Malaysia (+3.3% per year) and Germany (+3.2% per year).

In value terms, the United States ($2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the UK ($715M). It was followed by Germany.

In the United States, the sweetened condensed and evaporated milk market plunged by an average annual rate of -1.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the UK (+4.9% per year) and Germany (+3.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of sweetened condensed and evaporated milk per capita consumption in 2022 were Ireland (19 kg per person), Singapore (11 kg per person) and Malaysia (7.3 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Ireland (with a CAGR of +42.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Condensed Or Evaporated Milk (Sweetened)

In 2022, the amount of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) produced worldwide reached 2.6M tons, therefore, remained relatively stable against the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 7.9%. Global production peaked at 2.6M tons in 2019; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, sweetened condensed and evaporated milk production stood at $5.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 15%. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum level at $6.1B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The United States (757K tons) remains the largest sweetened condensed and evaporated milk producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 29% of total volume. Moreover, sweetened condensed and evaporated milk production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Malaysia (283K tons), threefold. Germany (252K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in the United States was relatively modest. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Malaysia (+1.6% per year) and Germany (+3.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Condensed Or Evaporated Milk (Sweetened)

In 2022, overseas purchases of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) decreased by -2% to 574K tons, falling for the fourth consecutive year after seven years of growth. Over the period under review, imports recorded a mild curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 9.1%. Global imports peaked at 854K tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, sweetened condensed and evaporated milk imports rose rapidly to $1.2B in 2022. Overall, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Global imports peaked at $1.3B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

Saudi Arabia (45K tons), the Netherlands (38K tons), the United States (31K tons), the UK (30K tons), France (27K tons), Germany (24K tons), Indonesia (21K tons), the United Arab Emirates (18K tons), Togo (16K tons), Spain (15K tons), China (13K tons) and Belgium (11K tons) represented roughly 50% of total imports in 2022. Libya (10K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +37.4%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Saudi Arabia ($116M), the UK ($90M) and France ($75M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 24% of global imports. The Netherlands, the United States, Germany, Spain, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, China, Belgium, Libya and Togo lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

China, with a CAGR of +37.7%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) amounted to $2,033 per ton, surging by 14% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($2,959 per ton), while Togo ($426 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United Arab Emirates (+13.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Condensed Or Evaporated Milk (Sweetened)

In 2022, shipments abroad of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) decreased by -3% to 563K tons, falling for the fourth year in a row after two years of growth. In general, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when exports increased by 24%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 787K tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, sweetened condensed and evaporated milk exports rose significantly to $1.1B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 27% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at $1.2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Belgium (88K tons) and the Netherlands (72K tons) represented the largest exporters of condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened)across the globe, together amounting to near 29% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Belarus (43K tons), Malaysia (42K tons), Togo (35K tons), Germany (34K tons), Spain (32K tons) and Chile (30K tons), together generating a 38% share of total exports. The following exporters - Australia (20K tons), Saudi Arabia (20K tons), South Korea (12K tons), Brazil (9.4K tons) and Indonesia (9.2K tons) - together made up 13% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by South Korea (with a CAGR of +16.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Belgium ($259M), the Netherlands ($151M) and Belarus ($80M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 43% of global exports. Spain, Germany, Chile, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Australia, South Korea, Togo, Brazil and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

Among the main exporting countries, South Korea, with a CAGR of +15.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average export price for condensed or evaporated milk (sweetened) amounted to $2,022 per ton, picking up by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded a mild increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the average export price increased by 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($2,938 per ton), while Togo ($628 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Saudi Arabia (+6.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform