Uncoated Kraft Liner Market

Driven by increasing demand for uncoated kraft liner worldwide, the market is forecasted to see growth in both volume and value terms from 2022 to 2030. The market experienced a decline in consumption in 2022, but overall showed resilient growth over the past decade. China, the United States, and Japan were the top consuming countries in 2022, while the United States, Sweden, and Finland were the main exporters. Average import and export prices saw increases in 2022, with variations among different types of uncoated kraft liner.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for uncoated kraft liner worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 66M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $59.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Uncoated Kraft Liner

In 2022, after ten years of growth, there was decline in consumption of uncoated kraft liner, when its volume decreased by -3.4% to 49M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 51M tons in 2021, and then fell modestly in the following year.

The global uncoated kraft liner market value dropped to $37.6B in 2022, declining by -7.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +14.2% against 2020 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $40.8B, and then shrank in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (12M tons), the United States (6.5M tons) and Japan (3.2M tons), together comprising 44% of global consumption. Mexico, Germany, France, the UK, Russia, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Italy and Australia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +15.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($12.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($3.9B). It was followed by Germany.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +7.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+11.8% per year) and Germany (+4.8% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of uncoated kraft liner per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (29 kg per person), Australia (29 kg per person) and Saudi Arabia (27 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +13.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Uncoated Kraft Liner

After ten years of growth, production of uncoated kraft liner decreased by -2.7% to 49M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 8.7%. Global production peaked at 51M tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, uncoated kraft liner production dropped to $36.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +14.4% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 31% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $41.8B, and then reduced in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (11M tons), the United States (9.8M tons) and Japan (3.2M tons), with a combined 49% share of global production. Mexico, France, Russia, Sweden, Germany, the UK, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Tanzania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 28%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +44.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Uncoated Kraft Liner

Global uncoated kraft liner imports shrank to 10M tons in 2022, with a decrease of -3.8% compared with the previous year. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 7.2%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 11M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, uncoated kraft liner imports amounted to $8.7B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by 19% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

Germany (1,041K tons), Mexico (853K tons), China (803K tons), Italy (752K tons), Spain (508K tons), the UK (398K tons), Guatemala (365K tons), the Netherlands (329K tons), Canada (324K tons), Chile (296K tons), the United States (254K tons) and Turkey (252K tons) represented roughly 61% of total imports in 2022. Costa Rica (231K tons) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Chile (with a CAGR of +5.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($732M), Mexico ($725M) and Italy ($667M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 24% of global imports. China, Spain, Guatemala, the UK, Canada, the United States, Chile, the Netherlands, Turkey and Costa Rica lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

Guatemala, with a CAGR of +10.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

In 2022, unbleached kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm (7.8M tons) represented the key type of uncoated kraft liner, constituting 76% of total imports. It was distantly followed by kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm (2.4M tons), constituting a 24% share of total imports.

unbleached kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports. Kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, unbleached kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm ($6.5B) constitutes the largest type of uncoated kraft liner imported worldwide, comprising 74% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm ($2.2B), with a 26% share of global imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of unbleached kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm imports totaled +3.7%.

Import Prices By Type

The average uncoated kraft liner import price stood at $857 per ton in 2022, picking up by 16% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.7%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 25% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm ($934 per ton), while the price for unbleached kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm amounted to $831 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by kraft paper and paperboard; kraftliner, uncoated, unbleached, in rolls or sheets, other than that of heading no. 4802 or 4803 (+3.0%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average uncoated kraft liner import price amounted to $857 per ton, jumping by 16% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.7%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($1,070 per ton), while Germany ($704 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Guatemala (+5.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Uncoated Kraft Liner

Global uncoated kraft liner exports reduced modestly to 10M tons in 2022, approximately mirroring the previous year's figure. Overall, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 11M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, uncoated kraft liner exports stood at $8.1B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 20%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The United States represented the main exporter of uncoated kraft liner in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 3.6M tons, which was approx. 35% of total exports in 2022. Sweden (1,630K tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Finland (651K tons), Poland (523K tons), Russia (498K tons), South Africa (466K tons) and Brazil (465K tons). All these countries together took near 42% share of total exports. Austria (362K tons), France (359K tons), Portugal (269K tons), Belgium (191K tons), the Netherlands (191K tons) and Canada (185K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of uncoated kraft liner. At the same time, Finland (+19.8%), Brazil (+8.2%), South Africa (+5.1%), Russia (+3.2%), Belgium (+2.8%), the Netherlands (+2.3%), France (+1.9%) and Poland (+1.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Finland emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +19.8% from 2012-2022. Sweden, Austria and Portugal experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Canada (-1.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Finland, Brazil and South Africa increased by +5.2, +2.3 and +1.5 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($2.9B) remains the largest uncoated kraft liner supplier worldwide, comprising 36% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Sweden ($1.1B), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Finland, with a 7.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States stood at +3.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Sweden (+2.1% per year) and Finland (+21.4% per year).

Exports By Type

In 2022, unbleached kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm (7.7M tons) represented the key type of uncoated kraft liner, comprising 78% of total exports. It was distantly followed by kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm (2.2M tons), creating a 22% share of total exports.

unbleached kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports. Kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, unbleached kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm ($6.1B) remains the largest type of uncoated kraft liner supplied worldwide, comprising 76% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm ($1.9B), with a 24% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of unbleached kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm exports totaled +4.2%.

Export Prices By Type

The average uncoated kraft liner export price stood at $790 per ton in 2022, growing by 11% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.7%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm ($872 per ton), while the average price for exports of unbleached kraftliner, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm amounted to $796 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by kraft paper and paperboard; kraftliner, uncoated, unbleached, in rolls or sheets, other than that of heading no. 4802 or 4803 (+3.5%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average uncoated kraft liner export price amounted to $790 per ton, surging by 11% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.7%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 25%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,109 per ton), while South Africa ($233 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Brazil (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform