Urea Market

The article provides a detailed analysis of the global urea market, including consumption, production, import, and export trends from 2012 to 2022. It forecasts market performance and growth patterns until 2030, with an anticipated increase in both consumption volume and market value. Key findings include the leading countries in urea consumption, production, imports, and exports, as well as notable growth rates in consumption and production for certain countries. The article also highlights fluctuations in prices and volumes, as well as the impact of these trends on the global urea market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for urea worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 169M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $76.8B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Urea

In 2022, the amount of urea consumed worldwide was estimated at 146M tons, growing by 5.7% on the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the consumption volume increased by 7.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the maximum volume in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

The global urea market size rose remarkably to $61.8B in 2022, surging by 9.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of urea consumption was India (37M tons), accounting for 25% of total volume. Moreover, urea consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, China (12M tons), threefold. The United States (9.8M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in India stood at +2.4%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: China (+4.9% per year) and the United States (+0.6% per year).

In value terms, India ($15.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($5B). It was followed by Brazil.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in India stood at +1.4%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+2.1% per year) and Brazil (+9.1% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of urea per capita consumption in 2022 were Australia (143 kg per person), Canada (134 kg per person) and Iran (102 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Iran (with a CAGR of +21.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Urea

In 2022, production of urea increased by 1.1% to 134M tons, rising for the eighth consecutive year after two years of decline. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the production volume increased by 5.5%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, urea production declined rapidly to $45.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 62% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $54.3B, and then contracted significantly in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were India (25M tons), China (15M tons) and Iran (9.2M tons), with a combined 36% share of global production. Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, the United States, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Egypt, Oman and the United Arab Emirates lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +28.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Urea

In 2022, the amount of urea imported worldwide rose rapidly to 65M tons, surging by 12% against the previous year's figure. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 13%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, urea imports skyrocketed to $38.9B in 2022. In general, imports continue to indicate a strong increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 65% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, India (12M tons), distantly followed by Brazil (7.3M tons), the United States (5.2M tons) and Australia (3.7M tons) were the key importers of urea, together creating 44% of total imports. The following importers - Turkey (2.6M tons), France (2.4M tons), Thailand (1.8M tons), South Africa (1.5M tons), the UK (1.5M tons), Belgium (1.4M tons), Poland (1.4M tons), Germany (1.4M tons) and Mexico (1.4M tons) - together made up 24% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Poland (with a CAGR of +19.4%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($7.1B), Brazil ($4.8B) and the United States ($3.1B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 38% share of global imports. Australia, Turkey, France, Thailand, the UK, Belgium, Poland, Mexico, South Africa and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +24.7%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average urea import price stood at $599 per ton in 2022, picking up by 42% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw noticeable growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 60% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Thailand ($723 per ton), while South Africa ($408 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Thailand (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Urea

For the fifth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in overseas shipments of urea, which increased by 1% to 53M tons in 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, urea exports skyrocketed to $29.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports enjoyed a buoyant expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 74% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Russia (6.7M tons), followed by Saudi Arabia (4.4M tons), Oman (3.6M tons), Algeria (3.4M tons), Egypt (3.4M tons), Nigeria (3.1M tons), Malaysia (3M tons), China (2.9M tons) and the Netherlands (2.7M tons) represented the largest exporters of urea, together creating 63% of total exports. The following exporters - Poland (2.1M tons), Germany (2.1M tons), the United Arab Emirates (1.8M tons) and Indonesia (1.8M tons) - together made up 15% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +43.2%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest urea supplying countries worldwide were Russia ($4.4B), Saudi Arabia ($2.8B) and Algeria ($2.3B), with a combined 32% share of global exports. Nigeria, Egypt, China, Oman, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, the Netherlands, Germany and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 45%.

Nigeria, with a CAGR of +48.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average urea export price amounted to $565 per ton, jumping by 38% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price posted a noticeable increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 57%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Algeria ($672 per ton), while the Netherlands ($388 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Algeria (+7.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform