Chocolate and Confectionery Market

The global chocolate and confectionery market is projected to see growth in both consumption and value from 2022 to 2030, with a forecasted CAGR of 2.1% and 4.3% respectively. Despite a decrease in consumption in 2022, the market has shown consistent growth patterns over the past decade, with record highs in 2020. China, the United States, and India are the top consuming countries, while Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium are key players in exports. Poland stands out with notable growth in both imports and exports. Overall, the industry is expected to see gradual growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for chocolate and confectionery worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 63M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $354B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Chocolate and Confectionery

In 2022, consumption of chocolate and confectionery decreased by -0.5% to 53M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after nine years of growth. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the consumption volume increased by 6.5%. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 54M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global chocolate and confectionery market size dropped slightly to $253.7B in 2022, remaining stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 7.6% against the previous year. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $257B. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (8.3M tons), the United States (4.2M tons) and India (3.3M tons), together accounting for 30% of global consumption. Pakistan, Japan, Germany, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, Ethiopia and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +5.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest chocolate and confectionery markets worldwide were China ($38.6B), Japan ($23.6B) and the United States ($20.5B), together comprising 33% of the global market. India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Germany, Ethiopia, Brazil, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Russia and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Ethiopia, with a CAGR of +8.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of chocolate and confectionery per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (21 kg per person), Japan (15 kg per person) and the United States (13 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +3.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Chocolate and Confectionery

In 2022, production of chocolate and confectionery decreased by -0.8% to 53M tons, falling for the second year in a row after nine years of growth. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 6.2%. Global production peaked at 54M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, chocolate and confectionery production dropped to $246.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $284.9B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (8.2M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of chocolate and confectionery production, comprising approx. 15% of total volume. Moreover, chocolate and confectionery production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (3.5M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (3.2M tons), with a 6.1% share.

In China, chocolate and confectionery production increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-0.1% per year) and India (+3.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Chocolate and Confectionery

Global chocolate and confectionery imports rose modestly to 10M tons in 2022, with an increase of 2.5% against the previous year's figure. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 7.9%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, chocolate and confectionery imports amounted to $44.8B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of chocolate and confectionery imports in 2022 were the United States (1,173K tons), Germany (809K tons), France (753K tons), the Netherlands (680K tons), the UK (630K tons), Belgium (536K tons), Poland (376K tons), Canada (330K tons), Spain (274K tons), Italy (269K tons), Japan (245K tons) and China (193K tons), together recording 62% of total import. Russia (187K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Poland (with a CAGR of +7.1%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($5.2B), Germany ($3.7B) and France ($3.2B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 27% of global imports. The UK, the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, Poland, Italy, Spain, Japan, China and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +7.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average chocolate and confectionery import price amounted to $4,440 per ton, shrinking by -1.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the average import price increased by 7.9%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $4,730 per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Canada ($4,823 per ton) and the UK ($4,820 per ton), while Spain ($3,741 per ton) and Belgium ($3,774 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+1.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Chocolate and Confectionery

In 2022, the amount of chocolate and confectionery exported worldwide totaled 10M tons, leveling off at 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 8.3%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, chocolate and confectionery exports contracted modestly to $45.5B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 12%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $45.5B, leveling off in the following year.

Exports By Country

Germany (1.3M tons) and the Netherlands (1.3M tons) represented roughly 25% of total exports in 2022. Belgium (695K tons) took a 6.8% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Cote d'Ivoire (5.6%), France (5%) and Poland (4.6%). The following exporters - Canada (454K tons), Italy (431K tons), Malaysia (422K tons), the United States (397K tons), Indonesia (355K tons), Turkey (282K tons) and Ghana (266K tons) - together made up 25% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +7.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($6.5B), the Netherlands ($5.2B) and Belgium ($3.4B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 33% share of global exports. Italy, Poland, France, Canada, the United States, Cote d'Ivoire, Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey and Ghana lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 39%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +7.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average chocolate and confectionery export price stood at $4,450 per ton in 2022, flattening at the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 an increase of 6.6%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $4,769 per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($5,774 per ton), while Cote d'Ivoire ($3,098 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform