Cinnamon Market

The global cinnamon market is set for growth, with a forecasted CAGR of +2.9% in volume and +4.5% in value from 2022 to 2030. Consumption patterns show significant increases in demand, with key consuming countries including India, the United States, and Indonesia. Production trends indicate stable growth, with notable fluctuations in certain years. Imports and exports are also on the rise, with key exporting countries being China, Vietnam, and Indonesia. Overall, the market is expected to see steady growth in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cinnamon (canella) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 306K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cinnamon

Global cinnamon consumption expanded rapidly to 244K tons in 2022, surging by 7% against 2021. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the consumption volume increased by 8.5%. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 247K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global cinnamon market revenue rose sharply to $1B in 2022, surging by 6.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +23.8% against 2020 indices. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were India (36K tons), the United States (28K tons) and Indonesia (28K tons), with a combined 38% share of global consumption. China, Mexico, Bangladesh, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, Sri Lanka and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Pakistan (with a CAGR of +13.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($159M), Mexico ($110M) and Indonesia ($106M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 37% of the global market. India, China, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

India, with a CAGR of +17.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of cinnamon per capita consumption was registered in the United Arab Emirates (622 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Sri Lanka (248 kg per 1000 persons), Mexico (137 kg per 1000 persons) and Indonesia (100 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of cinnamon was estimated at 31 kg per 1000 persons.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the cinnamon per capita consumption in the United Arab Emirates was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Sri Lanka (+11.4% per year) and Mexico (+9.0% per year).

Production

World Production of Cinnamon

In 2022, the amount of cinnamon (canella) produced worldwide contracted to 238K tons, leveling off at 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 6.4% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 239K tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a modest increase of the harvested area and a slight decrease in yield figures.

In value terms, cinnamon production fell to $1B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, enjoyed a buoyant expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the production volume increased by 36%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $1.2B in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (90K tons), Vietnam (60K tons) and Indonesia (52K tons), with a combined 85% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Vietnam (with a CAGR of +8.4%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average cinnamon yield shrank to 735 kg per ha in 2022, reducing by -3.1% compared with 2021. In general, the yield saw a mild shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 2.3%. As a result, the yield reached the peak level of 849 kg per ha. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the average cinnamon yield remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2022, approx. 324K ha of cinnamon (canella) were harvested worldwide; with an increase of 2.8% on 2021 figures. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 5.9%. The global harvested area peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Imports

World Imports of Cinnamon

Global cinnamon imports stood at 215K tons in 2022, picking up by 4.3% against 2021 figures. In general, total imports indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports decreased by -3.1% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 20% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 222K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, cinnamon imports expanded markedly to $966M in 2022. Overall, imports posted a resilient increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 29% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

India (37K tons) and the United States (32K tons) represented roughly 32% of total imports in 2022. Mexico (18K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Bangladesh (13K tons). All these countries together held near 14% share of total imports. The following importers - Vietnam (8.5K tons), Pakistan (7.1K tons), the United Arab Emirates (6.9K tons), the Netherlands (6.1K tons), Germany (5.2K tons), Iran (3.9K tons), the UK (3.9K tons) and Canada (3.3K tons) - together made up 21% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +26.1%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cinnamon importing markets worldwide were the United States ($194M), India ($113M) and Mexico ($102M), with a combined 42% share of global imports. Vietnam, Bangladesh, the Netherlands, Germany, Canada, the United Arab Emirates, the UK, Pakistan and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Vietnam, with a CAGR of +49.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average cinnamon import price amounted to $4,497 per ton, approximately equating the previous year. In general, import price indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, cinnamon import price increased by +85.6% against 2013 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 14%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($6,567 per ton), while Pakistan ($1,834 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Vietnam (+18.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cinnamon

In 2022, global exports of cinnamon (canella) fell modestly to 209K tons, with a decrease of -3.7% compared with the year before. In general, total exports indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports decreased by -10.6% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when exports increased by 29% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 234K tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, cinnamon exports dropped slightly to $1B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, showed prominent growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 37% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $1.1B in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

Exports By Country

China (72K tons) and Vietnam (67K tons) represented the major exporters of cinnamon (canella) in 2022, amounting to approx. 34% and 32% of total exports, respectively. Indonesia (26K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 12% share, followed by Sri Lanka (8.7%). The following exporters - the Netherlands (4.3K tons) and the United States (3.4K tons) - each amounted to a 3.7% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +12.6%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cinnamon supplying countries worldwide were China ($274M), Vietnam ($261M) and Sri Lanka ($232M), together comprising 74% of global exports.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Vietnam, with a CAGR of +22.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average cinnamon export price stood at $4,952 per ton in 2022, leveling off at the previous year. In general, export price indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +6.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, cinnamon export price increased by +89.9% against 2013 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 17% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $5,004 per ton, and then contracted in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Sri Lanka ($12,699 per ton), while China ($3,830 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (+15.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform