Cereal, Fruit or Nut Chocolate Bar Market

Driven by increasing demand worldwide, the market for chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts is projected to grow with a CAGR of +1.7% in volume and +4.2% in value from 2022 to 2030. Global consumption expanded to 6.3M tons in 2022, with the United States, China, and India leading the way. In terms of production, 6.4M tons were produced in 2022, with China, the United States, and India as the top producers. Imports and exports also saw growth, with Germany, Mexico, and Switzerland as major exporters. Prices varied by country, with Canada having the highest export price at $9,354 per ton. Overall, the market is expected to see steady growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 7.2M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $47.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Chocolate Bars with Cereals, Fruit or Nuts

In 2022, global consumption of chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts expanded to 6.3M tons, surging by 2.8% against the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 9%. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 6.5M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption of remained at a lower figure.

The revenue of the market for chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts worldwide expanded to $34.1B in 2022, growing by 2.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $34.8B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (938K tons), the United States (604K tons) and India (378K tons), together accounting for 30% of global consumption. Nigeria, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, Brazil, Russia, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and the Philippines lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of nuts, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +5.7%), while nuts for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($6.3B), the United States ($3.5B) and Japan ($3.2B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 38% share of the global market. India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Russia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Ethiopia and the Philippines lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 22%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, India, with a CAGR of +6.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while nuts for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of cereal, fruit or nut chocolate bar per capita consumption in 2022 were the United States (1,802 kg per 1000 persons), Japan (1,786 kg per 1000 persons) and Nigeria (1,066 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of nuts, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +4.4%), while nuts for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Chocolate Bars with Cereals, Fruit or Nuts

In 2022, the amount of chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts produced worldwide rose slightly to 6.4M tons, picking up by 3.1% against the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 9.1% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 6.5M tons. From 2021 to 2022, global production of growth failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, production of chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts stood at $34B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production of attained the maximum level at $34.5B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (929K tons), the United States (481K tons) and India (376K tons), together accounting for 28% of global production. Indonesia, Germany, Nigeria, Pakistan, Japan, Brazil, Mexico, Bangladesh, Russia and Ethiopia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 28%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of nuts, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +5.9%), while nuts for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Chocolate Bars with Cereals, Fruit or Nuts

In 2022, supplies from abroad of chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts increased by 2.8% to 1.2M tons, rising for the seventh year in a row after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when imports increased by 6.1%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, imports of chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts rose slightly to $6.1B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 8.7% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (157K tons), followed by the UK (101K tons), France (87K tons) and Germany (62K tons) represented the largest importers of chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts, together committing 35% of total imports. Japan (41K tons), Belgium (35K tons), Russia (35K tons), the Netherlands (34K tons), Italy (33K tons), Spain (31K tons), Poland (31K tons), Canada (29K tons) and the United Arab Emirates (20K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +14.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($709M), the UK ($525M) and France ($420M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 27% of global imports. Germany, Japan, Russia, Canada, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Spain, the United Arab Emirates and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

Among the main importing countries, the United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +13.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts amounted to $5,281 per ton, flattening at the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.3%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 an increase of 9.3%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $5,343 per ton in 2021, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United Arab Emirates ($7,166 per ton), while Italy ($4,122 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+5.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Chocolate Bars with Cereals, Fruit or Nuts

In 2022, overseas shipments of chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts increased by 4.2% to 1.2M tons, rising for the seventh consecutive year after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 12%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

In value terms, exports of chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts rose modestly to $6.1B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 8.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports of reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Germany (260K tons), distantly followed by Mexico (96K tons), Switzerland (77K tons) and Poland (63K tons) were the major exporters of chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts, together making up 41% of total exports. Belgium (44K tons), the United Arab Emirates (42K tons), France (41K tons), Austria (39K tons), Spain (39K tons), the United States (34K tons), South Korea (33K tons), Canada (31K tons) and the Netherlands (28K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to cereal, fruit or nut chocolate bar exports from Germany stood at +3.0%. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates (+15.7%), Poland (+6.6%), the Netherlands (+5.4%), Canada (+5.2%), Spain (+4.0%), South Korea (+3.5%), Austria (+3.5%), Switzerland (+2.0%) and Belgium (+1.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the United Arab Emirates emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +15.7% from 2012-2022. France experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the United States (-1.2%) and Mexico (-2.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of the United Arab Emirates and Poland increased by +2.5 and +1.7 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($1.5B) remains the largest cereal, fruit or nut chocolate bar supplier worldwide, comprising 24% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Switzerland ($481M), with a 7.9% share of global exports. It was followed by Poland, with a 5% share.

In Germany, exports of chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts expanded at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Switzerland (+1.2% per year) and Poland (+6.4% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average export price for chocolate bars with cereals, fruit or nuts amounted to $5,043 per ton, declining by -2.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the average export price increased by 13% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $5,465 per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($9,354 per ton), while South Korea ($1,336 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+4.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform